Forum: Reliability & Maintainability Questions and Answers

Topic: Reliability & Maintainability Questions and Answers

Topic Posted by: Reliability & Maintainability Forum (src_forum@alionscience.com )
Organization: System Reliability Center
Date Posted: Mon Aug 31 12:47:36 US/Eastern 1998

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Original Message:

Posted by: Bob Valerius (robert_m_valerius@md.northgrum.com )
Organization:Northrop-Grumman Oceanic & Naval Systems
Date posted: Thu May 31 12:58:25 US/Eastern 2001
Subject: Modeling failure data
Message:
Hi I have been asked to look at different methods for modeling failure data. On one of our programs, we model the reliability by using predictions from various sources. This program has been in test (sample size = 1) since 9/99. The approach we are taking is that when a component or subassembly fails, we replace its predicted failure rate with the actual. This of course almost always results in a lower reliability estimation. When the FRACAS procedure results in a corrective action being implemented, we then replace the actual failure rate with the predicted failure rate. This is how we report monthly on our reliability metric. Does know of a reputable alternative approach? It has been suggested that since predicted failure rates are an average, to replace the predicted one with the actual, which is only 1 data point, is way too conservative. Any ideas or suggestions would be appreciated. Thank you very much. Bob Valerius 410-260-5247

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