Forum: Reliability & Maintainability Questions and Answers

Topic: Reliability & Maintainability Questions and Answers

Topic Posted by: Reliability & Maintainability Forum (src_forum@alionscience.com )
Organization: System Reliability Center
Date Posted: Mon Aug 31 12:47:36 US/Eastern 1998
Topics List About this forum

Original Message:

Posted by: Sadat (sadath@nortelnetworks )
Organization:Nortel Networks
Date posted: Wed Apr 14 16:23:25 US/Eastern 2004
Subject: Error Bars on System Downtime Prediction
Message:
I am hoping that someone can help me. I am performing some Markov modeling to derive system downtime. I am supposed to derive error bars on my downtime predictions. I want to know how I can derive these error bars. Do they come from sensitivity analysis by varying for example the in service fault detection parameter in my availability model? I am looking at a system which is composed of many susbsystems that each require Markov modeling. How do I calculate the error bars for total system downtime which is the sum of all subsystems? I'm assuming things like fault detection (varying it from 80 to 95%), Switch over success probability etc.

Reply:

Required Information:

Your Name:

Your Email Address:

Subject:

Optional Information:

Organization:

Your Organization's Web Site:

Your Web home page:

Message:

Formatting options for message:

HTML
Preformatted Text
Translated Text