Forum: Reliability & Maintainability Questions and Answers
Topic: Reliability & Maintainability Questions and AnswersTopic Posted by: Reliability & Maintainability Forum (email@example.com )
Organization: System Reliability Center
Date Posted: Mon Aug 31 12:47:36 US/Eastern 1998
Original Message:Posted by: Sadat (sadath@nortelnetworks )
Date posted: Wed Apr 14 16:23:25 US/Eastern 2004
Subject: Error Bars on System Downtime Prediction
I am hoping that someone can help me. I am performing some Markov modeling to derive system downtime. I am supposed to derive error bars on my downtime predictions. I want to know how I can derive these error bars. Do they come from sensitivity analysis by varying for example the in service fault detection parameter in my availability model? I am looking at a system which is composed of many susbsystems that each require Markov modeling. How do I calculate the error bars for total system downtime which is the sum of all subsystems? I'm assuming things like fault detection (varying it from 80 to 95%), Switch over success probability etc.