Forum: Reliability & Maintainability Questions and Answers

Topic: Reliability & Maintainability Questions and Answers

Topic Posted by: Reliability & Maintainability Forum (src_forum@alionscience.com )
Organization: System Reliability Center
Date Posted: Mon Aug 31 12:47:36 US/Eastern 1998

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Original Message:

Posted by: Ty Pollak (pollakr@afotec.af.mil )
Date posted: Thu Aug 5 15:10:19 US/Eastern 1999
Subject: Use of Reliability predictions to supplement flight test data
Message:
I am analyzing reliability for a missile weapon system and basing my point estimate on flight test data. Due to the limited data, however, I'd like to incorporate contractor-provided reliability estimates to decrease my confidence interval about the pt estimate. The contractor solution is based on HALT and other developmental tests. My solution is to develop a distribution for Pr (system reliability) based on flight tests only, and another for the contractor's Pr. Then sample from these distributions according to a "scale factor" determined by my confidence in the contractor estimates, methodology, and correlation w/ flt test data. This scale factor is subjective. By sampling from the 2 distributions, I will generate a "total" Pr distribution, which I can pick off confidence bounds from. Any comments, suggestions, insights?

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